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2020 Senate · AZ

Data Orbital · fieldwork ended 2020-10-17 (17 days before the election) · 550 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48.1% · Republican 41.9%

D+6.2

The certified result

Democrat 51.16% · Republican 48.81%

D+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.1 − 41.9 = 6.20
  2. Actual margin = 51.157 − 48.808 = 2.349
  3. Signed miss = 6.20 − (2.349) = 3.851
  4. Absolute miss = |3.851| = 3.851

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71451, race ID 6268 (538 database).