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2020 President · PA

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2020-10-18 (16 days before the election) · 800 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 47%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.01% · Republican 48.84%

D+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 47 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.008 − 48.844 = 1.164
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (1.164) = 1.835
  4. Absolute miss = |1.835| = 1.835

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71457, race ID 6249 (538 database).