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2020 Senate · NC

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2020-10-17 (17 days before the election) · 660 respondents · Probability Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 47%

even

The certified result

Democrat 46.94% · Republican 48.69%

R+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 47 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.940 − 48.687 = -1.747
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-1.747) = 1.747
  4. Absolute miss = |1.747| = 1.747

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.7 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71463, race ID 6284 (538 database).