2020 House · PA-10
Tarrance Group · fieldwork ended 2020-10-14 (20 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 48%
R+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.69% · Republican 53.31%
R+6.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 48 = -4.00
- Actual margin = 46.688 − 53.312 = -6.624
- Signed miss = -4.00 − (-6.624) = 2.625
- Absolute miss = |2.625| = 2.625
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71529, race ID 8168 (538 database).