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2020 President · MN

Civiqs · fieldwork ended 2020-10-19 (15 days before the election) · 840 respondents · Online Panel/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 43%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.40% · Republican 45.28%

D+7.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 43 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.395 − 45.285 = 7.110
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (7.110) = 2.890
  4. Absolute miss = |2.890| = 2.890

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71539, race ID 6234 (538 database).