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2020 Senate · AZ

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2020-10-18 (16 days before the election) · 800 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 44%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.16% · Republican 48.81%

D+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 44 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.157 − 48.808 = 2.349
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (2.349) = -0.349
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.349| = 0.349

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71546, race ID 6268 (538 database).