2020 House · TX-6
GBAO · fieldwork ended 2020-10-15 (19 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 41% · Republican 45%
R+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 43.98% · Republican 52.80%
R+8.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 41 − 45 = -4.00
- Actual margin = 43.980 − 52.797 = -8.817
- Signed miss = -4.00 − (-8.817) = 4.817
- Absolute miss = |4.817| = 4.817
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71547, race ID 8201 (538 database).