2020 President · IA
Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2020-10-17 (17 days before the election) · 501 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 46%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 44.89% · Republican 53.09%
R+8.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 46 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 44.892 − 53.089 = -8.197
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (-8.197) = 13.198
- Absolute miss = |13.198| = 13.198
The poll overstated the Democrat by 13.2 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71548, race ID 6223 (538 database).