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2020 Senate · TX

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2020-10-18 (16 days before the election) · 1,145 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 49%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.87% · Republican 53.51%

R+9.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 49 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.869 − 53.508 = -9.639
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-9.639) = 3.639
  4. Absolute miss = |3.639| = 3.639

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71556, race ID 6295 (538 database).