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2020 President · KS

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2020-10-19 (15 days before the election) · 897 respondents · IVR/Text · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 54%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.56% · Republican 56.21%

R+14.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 54 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.560 − 56.213 = -14.653
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-14.653) = 2.653
  4. Absolute miss = |2.653| = 2.653

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71558, race ID 6227 (538 database).