Skip to content

2020 Senate · KS

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2020-10-19 (15 days before the election) · 897 respondents · IVR/Text · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 43%

even

The certified result

Democrat 41.79% · Republican 53.22%

R+11.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 43 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.786 − 53.223 = -11.437
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-11.437) = 11.437
  4. Absolute miss = |11.437| = 11.437

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.4 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71558, race ID 6275 (538 database).