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2020 House · PA-7

Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-15 (19 days before the election) · 447 respondents · Live Phone/Mail-to-Web/Mail-to-Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43.6% · Republican 36.4%

D+7.2

The certified result

Democrat 51.87% · Republican 48.13%

D+3.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.6 − 36.4 = 7.20
  2. Actual margin = 51.866 − 48.134 = 3.732
  3. Signed miss = 7.20 − (3.732) = 3.467
  4. Absolute miss = |3.467| = 3.467

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71567, race ID 8165 (538 database).