2020 President · FL
Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2020-10-17 (17 days before the election) · 662 respondents · Probability Panel
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 46%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.86% · Republican 51.22%
R+3.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 46 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 47.861 − 51.220 = -3.359
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (-3.359) = 8.358
- Absolute miss = |8.358| = 8.358
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.4 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71620, race ID 6220 (538 database).