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2020 Senate · AZ

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2020-10-18 (16 days before the election) · 658 respondents · Probability Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 43%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.16% · Republican 48.81%

D+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 43 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.157 − 48.808 = 2.349
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (2.349) = 5.651
  4. Absolute miss = |5.651| = 5.651

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71621, race ID 6268 (538 database).