Skip to content

2020 President · MI

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2020-10-17 (17 days before the election) · 830 respondents · Online Panel/Text-to-Web · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 45%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.62% · Republican 47.84%

D+2.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 45 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.621 − 47.837 = 2.784
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (2.784) = 2.216
  4. Absolute miss = |2.216| = 2.216

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71623, race ID 6233 (538 database).