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2020 President · WI

Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-19 (15 days before the election) · 1,037 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 44%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.45% · Republican 48.82%

D+0.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 44 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.450 − 48.822 = 0.628
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (0.628) = 4.373
  4. Absolute miss = |4.373| = 4.373

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71628, race ID 6259 (538 database).