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2020 President · OK

SoonerPoll.com · fieldwork ended 2020-10-17 (17 days before the election) · 5,466 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 36.5% · Republican 58.5%

R+22.0

The certified result

Democrat 32.29% · Republican 65.37%

R+33.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36.5 − 58.5 = -22.00
  2. Actual margin = 32.286 − 65.373 = -33.087
  3. Signed miss = -22.00 − (-33.087) = 11.087
  4. Absolute miss = |11.087| = 11.087

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71629, race ID 6247 (538 database).