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2020 Senate · OK

SoonerPoll.com · fieldwork ended 2020-10-17 (17 days before the election) · 5,466 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 36.9% · Republican 56.4%

R+19.5

The certified result

Democrat 32.75% · Republican 62.91%

R+30.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36.9 − 56.4 = -19.50
  2. Actual margin = 32.754 − 62.912 = -30.158
  3. Signed miss = -19.50 − (-30.158) = 10.659
  4. Absolute miss = |10.659| = 10.659

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71629, race ID 6289 (538 database).