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2020 House · OK-1

SoonerPoll.com · fieldwork ended 2020-10-17 (17 days before the election) · 1,492 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 29.8% · Republican 58.8%

R+29.0

The certified result

Democrat 32.68% · Republican 63.70%

R+31.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 29.8 − 58.8 = -29.00
  2. Actual margin = 32.683 − 63.701 = -31.018
  3. Signed miss = -29.00 − (-31.018) = 2.019
  4. Absolute miss = |2.019| = 2.019

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71629, race ID 8149 (538 database).