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2020 House · OK-5

SoonerPoll.com · fieldwork ended 2020-10-17 (17 days before the election) · 943 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48.8% · Republican 47%

D+1.8

The certified result

Democrat 47.94% · Republican 52.06%

R+4.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.8 − 47 = 1.80
  2. Actual margin = 47.938 − 52.062 = -4.124
  3. Signed miss = 1.80 − (-4.124) = 5.925
  4. Absolute miss = |5.925| = 5.925

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71629, race ID 8153 (538 database).