2020 President · national
Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2020-10-18 (16 days before the election) · 12,000 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 43%
D+10.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.07% · Republican 46.67%
D+4.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 43 = 10.00
- Actual margin = 51.068 − 46.672 = 4.396
- Signed miss = 10.00 − (4.396) = 5.604
- Absolute miss = |5.604| = 5.604
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71633, race ID 6210 (538 database).