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2020 President · AZ

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2020-10-15 (19 days before the election) · 1,066 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 48%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.37% · Republican 49.06%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 48 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.365 − 49.056 = 0.309
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (0.309) = -1.309
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.309| = 1.309

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71637, race ID 6214 (538 database).