Skip to content

2020 Senate · AZ

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2020-10-15 (19 days before the election) · 1,066 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 44%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.16% · Republican 48.81%

D+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 44 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.157 − 48.808 = 2.349
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (2.349) = 1.651
  4. Absolute miss = |1.651| = 1.651

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71637, race ID 6268 (538 database).