2020 Senate · MI
Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2020-10-15 (19 days before the election) · 1,717 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 42%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.90% · Republican 48.22%
D+1.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 42 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 49.903 − 48.218 = 1.685
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (1.685) = 4.315
- Absolute miss = |4.315| = 4.315
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71641, race ID 6280 (538 database).