2020 Senate · NC
Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2020-10-15 (19 days before the election) · 1,904 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 42%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.94% · Republican 48.69%
R+1.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 42 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 46.940 − 48.687 = -1.747
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (-1.747) = 7.747
- Absolute miss = |7.747| = 7.747
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.7 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71643, race ID 6284 (538 database).