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2020 President · SC

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2020-10-15 (19 days before the election) · 926 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 51%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.43% · Republican 55.11%

R+11.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 51 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.430 − 55.110 = -11.680
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-11.680) = 5.680
  4. Absolute miss = |5.680| = 5.680

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71646, race ID 6251 (538 database).