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2020 Senate · SC

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2020-10-15 (19 days before the election) · 926 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 45%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.17% · Republican 54.44%

R+10.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 45 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.166 − 54.437 = -10.271
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (-10.271) = 12.270
  4. Absolute miss = |12.270| = 12.270

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71646, race ID 6292 (538 database).