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2020 President · TX

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2020-10-15 (19 days before the election) · 3,347 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 47%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.48% · Republican 52.06%

R+5.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.479 − 52.058 = -5.579
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-5.579) = 6.579
  4. Absolute miss = |6.579| = 6.579

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71647, race ID 6254 (538 database).