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2020 Senate · TX

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2020-10-15 (19 days before the election) · 3,347 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 46%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.87% · Republican 53.51%

R+9.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 46 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.869 − 53.508 = -9.639
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-9.639) = 4.639
  4. Absolute miss = |4.639| = 4.639

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71647, race ID 6295 (538 database).