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2020 House · NY-24

Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2020-10-17 (17 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 47%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.97% · Republican 45.41%

R+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 47 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.965 − 45.406 = -2.441
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-2.441) = -5.559
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.559| = 5.559

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71658, race ID 8115 (538 database).