2020 House · IA-3
Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2020-10-17 (17 days before the election) · 426 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 55% · Republican 41%
D+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.94% · Republican 47.55%
D+1.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 55 − 41 = 14.00
- Actual margin = 48.935 − 47.550 = 1.385
- Signed miss = 14.00 − (1.385) = 12.614
- Absolute miss = |12.614| = 12.614
The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71671, race ID 7990 (538 database).