2020 Senate · MI
Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2020-10-21 (13 days before the election) · 804 respondents · IVR/Text · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 43%
D+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.90% · Republican 48.22%
D+1.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 43 = 9.00
- Actual margin = 49.903 − 48.218 = 1.685
- Signed miss = 9.00 − (1.685) = 7.315
- Absolute miss = |7.315| = 7.315
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71679, race ID 6280 (538 database).