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2020 President · FL

St. Pete Polls · fieldwork ended 2020-10-21 (13 days before the election) · 2,527 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48.9% · Republican 47.4%

D+1.5

The certified result

Democrat 47.86% · Republican 51.22%

R+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.9 − 47.4 = 1.50
  2. Actual margin = 47.861 − 51.220 = -3.359
  3. Signed miss = 1.50 − (-3.359) = 4.858
  4. Absolute miss = |4.858| = 4.858

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71739, race ID 6220 (538 database).