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2020 House · OH-12

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2020-10-14 (20 days before the election) · 818 respondents · IVR/Text · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 48%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.78% · Republican 55.24%

R+13.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 48 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.777 − 55.245 = -13.468
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-13.468) = 9.467
  4. Absolute miss = |9.467| = 9.467

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71740, race ID 8144 (538 database).