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2020 President · FL

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2020-10-20 (14 days before the election) · 800 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 50%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.86% · Republican 51.22%

R+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 50 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.861 − 51.220 = -3.359
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-3.359) = -0.642
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.642| = 0.642

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71745, race ID 6220 (538 database).