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2020 President · AZ

Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. · fieldwork ended 2020-10-21 (13 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46.2% · Republican 46.6%

R+0.4

The certified result

Democrat 49.37% · Republican 49.06%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.2 − 46.6 = -0.40
  2. Actual margin = 49.365 − 49.056 = 0.309
  3. Signed miss = -0.40 − (0.309) = -0.709
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.709| = 0.709

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71750, race ID 6214 (538 database).