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2020 President · GA

National Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-14 (20 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 45%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.47% · Republican 49.24%

D+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 45 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.473 − 49.237 = 0.236
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (0.236) = 3.764
  4. Absolute miss = |3.764| = 3.764

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71759, race ID 6221 (538 database).