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2020 House · NY-24

Siena College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-21 (13 days before the election) · 558 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 45%

even

The certified result

Democrat 42.97% · Republican 45.41%

R+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 45 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.965 − 45.406 = -2.441
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-2.441) = 2.441
  4. Absolute miss = |2.441| = 2.441

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.4 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71883, race ID 8115 (538 database).