2020 President · MI
Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2020-10-24 (10 days before the election) · 679 respondents · IVR/Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 55% · Republican 42%
D+13.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.62% · Republican 47.84%
D+2.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 55 − 42 = 13.00
- Actual margin = 50.621 − 47.837 = 2.784
- Signed miss = 13.00 − (2.784) = 10.216
- Absolute miss = |10.216| = 10.216
The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71890, race ID 6233 (538 database).