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2020 Senate · NC

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2020-10-21 (13 days before the election) · 1,098 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 46.8% · Republican 48.6%

R+1.8

The certified result

Democrat 46.94% · Republican 48.69%

R+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.8 − 48.6 = -1.80
  2. Actual margin = 46.940 − 48.687 = -1.747
  3. Signed miss = -1.80 − (-1.747) = -0.053
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.053| = 0.053

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71891, race ID 6284 (538 database).