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2020 President · PA

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 400 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45.5% · Republican 48.4%

R+2.9

The certified result

Democrat 50.01% · Republican 48.84%

D+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.5 − 48.4 = -2.90
  2. Actual margin = 50.008 − 48.844 = 1.164
  3. Signed miss = -2.90 − (1.164) = -4.065
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.065| = 4.065

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71969, race ID 6249 (538 database).