Skip to content

2020 President · GA

Civiqs · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 1,041 respondents · Online Panel/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 46%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.47% · Republican 49.24%

D+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 46 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.473 − 49.237 = 0.236
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (0.236) = 4.764
  4. Absolute miss = |4.764| = 4.764

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72040, race ID 6221 (538 database).