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2020 President · FL

Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. · fieldwork ended 2020-10-24 (10 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 48.5%

R+4.5

The certified result

Democrat 47.86% · Republican 51.22%

R+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 48.5 = -4.50
  2. Actual margin = 47.861 − 51.220 = -3.359
  3. Signed miss = -4.50 − (-3.359) = -1.142
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.142| = 1.142

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72050, race ID 6220 (538 database).