2020 Senate · NC
RMG Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 800 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web/Online Ad
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 42%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.94% · Republican 48.69%
R+1.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 42 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 46.940 − 48.687 = -1.747
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (-1.747) = 8.747
- Absolute miss = |8.747| = 8.747
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.7 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72054, race ID 6284 (538 database).