2020 President · AZ
Noble Predictive Insights · fieldwork ended 2020-10-24 (10 days before the election) · 716 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 46%
D+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.37% · Republican 49.06%
D+0.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 46 = 3.00
- Actual margin = 49.365 − 49.056 = 0.309
- Signed miss = 3.00 − (0.309) = 2.691
- Absolute miss = |2.691| = 2.691
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72055, race ID 6214 (538 database).