2020 Senate · MN
Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 657 respondents · IVR/Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 39%
D+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.74% · Republican 43.50%
D+5.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 39 = 14.00
- Actual margin = 48.737 − 43.498 = 5.239
- Signed miss = 14.00 − (5.239) = 8.762
- Absolute miss = |8.762| = 8.762
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72056, race ID 6281 (538 database).