2020 President · MI
Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2020-10-23 (11 days before the election) · 652 respondents · Probability Panel
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 43%
D+10.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.62% · Republican 47.84%
D+2.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 43 = 10.00
- Actual margin = 50.621 − 47.837 = 2.784
- Signed miss = 10.00 − (2.784) = 7.216
- Absolute miss = |7.216| = 7.216
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72058, race ID 6233 (538 database).