Skip to content

2020 President · MI

Glengariff Group · fieldwork ended 2020-10-24 (10 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49.3% · Republican 41.6%

D+7.7

The certified result

Democrat 50.62% · Republican 47.84%

D+2.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.3 − 41.6 = 7.70
  2. Actual margin = 50.621 − 47.837 = 2.784
  3. Signed miss = 7.70 − (2.784) = 4.916
  4. Absolute miss = |4.916| = 4.916

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72065, race ID 6233 (538 database).