2020 President · GA
Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 504 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 48%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.47% · Republican 49.24%
D+0.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 48 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 49.473 − 49.237 = 0.236
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (0.236) = 1.764
- Absolute miss = |1.764| = 1.764
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72146, race ID 6221 (538 database).