2020 Governor · NC
Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 614 respondents · IVR/Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 43%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.52% · Republican 47.01%
D+4.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 43 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 51.516 − 47.005 = 4.511
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (4.511) = 3.490
- Absolute miss = |3.490| = 3.490
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72153, race ID 7824 (538 database).